The most comprehensive list of systemic risk websites last updated on Feb 1 2020.
Stats collected from various trackers included with free apps.
360-Degree Focus on Finance-IT-Risk Management Research Centers (tm), Financial Intelligence Research Reports on Everything You Need to Know from FinRM Global RISK Management Network, Financial Risk Management, Systemic Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, Operational Risk Management 360-Degree Focus on Finance-IT-Risk Management Research, Financial Intelligence Research Reports on Everything You Need to Know from FinRM Global RISK Management Network, Financial Risk Management, Systemic Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
Management & Applied Economics Review In collaboration with the Business Intelligence Agency of London, FordBridge University and with the European Business School of Cambridge, Management & Applied Economics Review (ISSN 2371-4794) is an academic and scientific review of management, Applied economics& organization governance, a means of vulgarization adhering to the highest peer review standards and engages established and emerging scholars around the world. In this era, characterized by an explosion and applications of systems and technologies, the gap between theory and practice, frameworks and applications keeps widening. The Review seeks to narrow this gap by publishing case-based research that supports, extends, constrains, or elucidates existing theory or that helps in building new theories and frameworks. It was launched on the premise that case-based methodologies provide rich, detailed data that provide a context for theory that is absent in strategies, applied economics, governance and organizational studies. This Review is interdisciplinary, bilingual, and centered on global management, inviting contributions from all fields, disciplines and approaches relevant to the development of the global economy. Note that all our events are organised by the LabExReFi in association with the Academic Council on the Global Governance Systemic Risk, under the auspices of the Financial Engineering and Banking System. LabExReFi is a research centre dedicated to the evaluation of regulation policies, with its main objectives being to improve the understanding of financial systems and regulations'' implications, with a view of providing public authorities with independent academic expertise and guidelines for actions. This prestigious review furthers objectives of excellence in research and higher education, hence an acceptance rate of 8% on average.
Systemic Risk Hub | The Most Recent Research The Systemic Risk Hub (SRH) is an independent and collaborative initiative that brings together the most recent developments regarding systemic risk around the world.
Amy S. Greene Environmental Consultants Highly experienced small, women owned environmental consulting firm providingwetlands, endangered species, and other ecological services; wetland mitigation design; environmental impactanalysis; environmental planning and permitting to public and private sector clients.
IPE, Section 61 (Winter 2015) | The class blog for Erin's 4pm section of International Political Economy The class blog for Erin's 4pm section of International Political Economy
Amy S. Greene Environmental Consultants Highly experienced small, women owned environmental consulting firm providingwetlands, endangered species, and other ecological services; wetland mitigation design; environmental impactanalysis; environmental planning and permitting to public and private sector clients.
Sonia Jaspal's RiskBoard | Thoughts on business ethics, corporate governance, risk management and compliance Thoughts on business ethics, corporate governance, risk management and compliance
Diebold-Yilmaz Indices of Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness We apply Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness methodology to global financial markets.
Knowledge Management: Knowledge Management Book: BRINT Institute''s Book on Systemic Risk and Knowledge Management. Knowledge Management:Knowledge Management Book: BRINT Institute''s Book on Systemic Risk Management and Knowledge Management. How to manage systemic risk of enterprises, markets, exchanges, and, networks resulting from information & communication technology enabled new organization forms and business models. Also ITUse: Beyond Information Technology Acquisition to Effective Information Technology Use: Achieving Effective Adoption, Utilization, and Business Performance from New Information and Communication Technologies.
On Risk Management, Systemic Failures, and ''Black Swans: Rethinking Systemic Risk Management for Pre-empting Extreme Events aka ''Black Swans'' & Systemic Failures: WWW Virtual Library on Knowledge Management and the Knowledge Management Think Tank On Risk Management, Systemic Failures, and ''Black Swans: Rethinking Systemic Risk Management for Pre-empting Extreme Events aka ''Black Swans'' & Systemic Failures: WWW Virtual Library on Knowledge Management and the Knowledge Management Think Tank
CaNRisk CaNRisk-CREATE focuses on resilience and systemic risk quantification of interdependent systems in Canada's nuclear infrastructure
Safety Assessment of Cosmetics in the EU • Training Course Safety, Assessment, Cosmetics, EU, Prof. Vera Rogiers, Rogiers, VUB, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, European Union, Training Course, 6 ECTS, Belgium, Directive 76/768/EEC, Regulation EC 1223/2009, REACH, validated” and “valid” alternative methods? What is their actual use and how to perform these tests?, Which role, systemic toxicity testing play, safety assessment of cosmetics,How to make a Product Information File, finished cosmetic product, according to the actual EU Regulation, Product Information File, PIF, cosmetic ingredient, positive lists, actual Regulation, packaging requirements, Annex I, process of risk assessment, new methodologies
Cleanse | If you desire to achieve an optimal state of health, I highly recommend completing a deep intestinal cleansing program. It is almost unbelievable how quickly some people overcome serious health issues by doing a simple but deep intestinal cleanse. Even those who appear to be in good health also benefit greatly from our Transformational Cleanse. Why is this? When done properly a deep cleanse helps the body to eliminate pounds of toxins, acids, mucus, unnatural growths and a huge amount of mucus and congestion. Too much mucus in our body interferes with circulation of blood, brain, and lymphatic system. Deep cleansing not only improves circulation, but also significantly improves the immune system as well, rather dramatically I might add. Observing the blood before and after the Cleanse reveals a significantly improved immune function and much cleaner blood. For an example: Measuring the movements of neutrophils before and after a Cleanse is utterly remarkable. Neutrophils are a type of white blood cells that seeks out unnatural debris and consumes them. Before a cleanse they move like a slug in the garden, so slow that they hardly seem like their even moving and after the cleanse they move approximately 6 to 10 times faster. Imagine what that might mean to you if your body was dealing with a pathogen. Our Cleanse is well known for improving the digestive system, and this of course, benefits the entire body and mind. It is obvious that the digestive system, which includes the entire gastrointestinal tract, sometimes referred to as the gut, is the hub or core of our entire body. It feeds all our organs, our glands, and every single cell. When the digestive system becomes sluggish, over-acid and toxic, as it does in over 80% of the US, it loses its integrity and the strength to function properly and to defend itself against parasites, pathogenic bacteria, yeast and fungus. Then we find digestive diseases and cellular mutations developing in the gut. Almost every disease in the gastrointestinal tract is associated with acids, toxins and stress. It has been estimated that 80% to 90% of the public have a weakened digestive system, an altered gut microbiome (bacteria). As acids and toxins accumulate in the gut, they can burn, damage or kill the cells along the intestinal wall, and the intestinal cells respond by secreting massive amounts of mucins. Mucins are glycoprotein solutions and very sticky and viscous mucus-like substance that are designed to adhere strongly to the intestinal wall. Each time the cells come in contact with more acids or toxins, another layer is formed along the intestinal wall. As long as acids and toxins continue to pass through the intestines and/or should they accumulate in the gut wall, the intestinal cells continue to create more layers of mucins. Doctor Bernard Jensen, my mentor, wrote about a man whose colon had stretched to being 14 inches in diameter with a hole about the size of a pencil running through the center. That of course was an extreme case, but provides an image of how important it is to learn how to eat according the our human design as opposed to eating like pigs. A pig will eat just about anything that is put in front of them. There are well over 100 clinical studies that describe mucin accumulations in the gut and how they are related to disease. The term mucoid plaque was created to define the unnatural accumulation of mucins caused by a highly toxic intestinal environment. Once the mucoid plaque accumulates to a certain degree, major problems begin to occur. For an example: Too many layers of mucins can interfere with the natural muscular actions of the intestines (peristalsis) that are essential for moving food through the intestines in a timely manner. Though there are several different mechanisms that can cause constipation, this is the number one cause. Most Naturopathic physicians define constipation as having less than 3 bowel movements daily, that is, if you eat 3 meals a day. Ideally, if we eat 3 meals daily we should have 4 BM's daily. When we first get up in the morning and about 30 minutes after each meal. When a person has less than one BM daily, they are definitely heading for serious chronic and degenerative disease. When layers of mucoid plaque in the stomach reach a certain degree of thickness, there will be an interference with hydrochloric acid production and this is one of the primary causes of digestive disturbances and the inability to digest proteins properly. We cannot digest protein without hydrochloric acid, and when we cannot digest protein fully, then many undigested proteins will enter the body and be deposited in weaker areas of the body. After they accumulate to a certain degree, the body will do all it can to remove them and when it cannot, they become precursors to many diseases. Autoimmune diseases are one example among many. Here are two examples of how important it is to have normal levels of hydrochloric acid. As early as 1975, 80% of people being treated in hospitals had no hydrochloric acid production. And in the 1918 pneumonia epidemic that killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people, most of the people who died were those who had no hydrochloric acid production. Hydrochloric acid in the stomach prevents pathogenic microbes and parasites from entering the inner sanctum of our gastrointestinal tract. Though pneumonia is usually associated with the lungs, the body with a normal constitution can usually handle pneumonia until the pathogens get past the stomach (from a lack of hydrochloric acid) and contaminate the gut. When the gut is infected, then the immune system can be completely overwhelmed and then during a major epidemic, death is almost certain, unless the bowels can be cleared of the infection, the normal microbial environment restored and the immune system strengthened. When layers of mucoid plaque reach a certain degree of thickness, the intestinal environment completely changes, and so do its inhabitants; the gut microbes. Everyone who has been breastfed established the natural-to-humans-microbes, which are absolutely essential for a strong immune system, a strong constitution and a long healthy life. The natural-to-humans-microbes are absolutely vital for the final stages of digestion, and vital for us to acquire certain health essential nutrients such as the B Vitamins, and vital to maintain proper weight, to be lean and strong as opposed to being over weight, which is a precursor to disease. Through the use of antibiotics or eating and drinking unnatural to human food, we lose the natural-to-humans-microbes. This is very serious and over 266 common diseases in our society have been directly linked with having lost the natural-to-humans-microbes given to us by our mother's milk. Recent studies have shown that all people who are obese or overweight have a predominate population of bacteria that are lactic-acid producing (lactobacillus), the primary bacteria in over 95% of probiotics on the market today. Studies now show that having a predominate gut population of lactobacillus eventually leads to obesity and all the diseases associated with obesity. Whereas, all lean and healthy people have a dominant population of natural-to-humans-microbes, which are the exact microbes that we receive from our mother's milk. Once again, Nature has proven Her wisdom to be vastly superior to so called human intelligence. Though there are numerous causes for being over weight, antibiotics have now been identified as the primary cause of the obesity epidemic. This has been confirmed by a major study at the New York University School of Medicine. The primary cause of obesity is the complete destruction of all the natural-to-humans-gut microbes and the introduction of unnatural to humans' bacteria. It may take 2 or more decades to destroy your gut microbiome by eating unnatural to human food, but it only takes a few days with antibiotics. Once your natural-to-humans-gut-microbes has been destroyed they will be replaced with species of microbes that are attracted to the intestinal environment you created. If your intestinal environment is full of toxins, bowel pockets, undigested substances, and diverticula, then you will attract certain types of reducer microbes that do not support your health, but join the process of decay. And once established it is no easy task to reestablish the natural-to-humans-microbes until after you have reestablished a natural clean gut environment that is free of toxic accumulations. Therefore: Cleanse & Purify Thyself. Environment determines the specie that lives there. Trying to change the specie without changing the environment is close to impossible, and should one succeed, it will be only a matter of time and the old specie will return. We must change the environment and then you can change the specie. This is why deep intestinal cleansing is so important! When layers of mucoid plaque reach a certain degree of thickness, the ability for digestive enzymes to mix with food is inhibited. Imagine the food you eat has moved into the upper small intestines where the pancreatic and bile duct secrete their juices needed for proper digestion. These juices and the 22 other digestive enzymes secreted throughout the small intestines must enter the gut lumen to mix with your food and help digest the meal. But if the juices are met with layers of mucoid plaque and cannot contact your food, then you will not be able to fully digest your meal and undigested foods become toxins to your body. One study involving infants that suffered from poor digestion. Biopsies revealed that the children had abnormal accumulations of mucin and the doctor was convinced that these children were unable to digest their food properly because mucin accumulations prevented the enzymes from contacting the food. Food cannot be digested without enzymes. When undigested food remains in the intestines some becomes trapped in pockets called bowel pockets and if one eats commercially grown food instead of organically grown food, highly toxic chemicals such as pesticides, fungicide, herbicides, lead, arsenic, cadmium, sulfates and other highly toxic chemicals, most of which are carcinogenic, combine with mucoid plaque and accumulate in the bowel pockets. Some of these poisonous particles seep through the plaque and stimulate the intestinal wall triggering more mucins to add additional layers of mucoid plaque. Some will be picked up by the blood and will weaken the liver and some may get past the liver and settle in the kidneys and other parts of the body causing weakness and dysfunction at that locality. In many cases the body will attempt to remove these undigested substances through fermentation, which creates additional acids, free radicals, and attract specialized reducer organisms (microbes) that help remove the toxic sludge, mucus and pus, but simultaneously harms our body. With all of the above going on it is no wonder that so many people have constipation. When we are constipated what moves the food? Pressure of course, from more food coming down the intestinal tube. When there is too much pressure in the intestines you can develop a major stretching of the intestinal wall, especially in the colon. This forces toxins and other materials never meant to enter the tissues to enter the blood and lymph and poison the entire body in abnormal ways. The first sign of systemic toxicity is chronic fatigue. This pressure can also cause bowel pockets, which weaken tissues, to stretch and expand exterior to the gut wall. This is diverticulum, which is described as an abnormal sac or pouch formed at a weak point in the wall of the alimentary canal. The Merck Manual (medical doctors bible) states that diverticula are present in 30 to 40% of persons over age 50, and their incidence increases with each subsequent decade of life, and that those who live long enough, diverticula will be present in close to 100% of the American people. Of course this does not include people who cleanse themselves, nor those who eat naturally. You should now be able to imagine how horribly filthy most people's guts have become and why is so many people attract worms and parasites, and why unnatural growths such as polyps are created and how extreme toxic matter and acids are the forerunner of diverticulitis, liver diseases, cancer and heart disease and why some of the greatest doctors in the world have said that 90% of all the diseases in our world can be traced to the intestines. My friend and mentor, Dr. Bernard Jensen, one of the physicians to Mahatma Gandhi, the King of Hunza and many Hollywood stars, was the only doctor in the world that was awarded the greatest doctor in the world award, stated: "The name of a disease depends upon where the poisons settle. Thus, from the same source, the same cause, various names of disease are given." Our "Transformational Cleanse" became world famous, not just because of the benefits that people have by doing the Cleanse, but because of the amounts of mucoid plaque that are removed from people's intestines during the cleanse. As I said, mucoid plaque is a substance that is formed by the goblet cells secreting mucin in the stomach and intestinal tract, when the epithelium wall of these organs are under attack from toxins and acids and parasites. This is an automatic defense system. We have millions of these glands throughout the entire gastrointestinal tract that, when under attack, secrete mucins. These conditions cause a rapid cascading or plummeting of health. An example is when we cannot digest food efficiently, there will be deposits of undigested proteins and carbohydrates that will settle in weaken areas of the body. As these deposits accumulate we become susceptible to inflammation, yeast, fungus and mold infections, Leaky Bowel Syndrome, Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), invasion of pathogenic microorganism, parasites, and ever increasing accumulations of toxicity in the intestines, liver, kidneys, brain, and practically any organ is directly linked to toxicity in the bowels. This means a weakening of every part of the body. In America, many people have become addicted to eating an unnatural-to-human diet of over-processed, devitalized unnatural food, which is high in fats, way too high in protein, deficient in minerals and vitamins and other nutrients. Most of this food is commercially grown and has been grown unnaturally and contains pesticides, herbicides and fungicides, which are all highly toxic poisons designed to kill something. As if that were not enough, they are grown on soil that contains high amounts of lead, arsenic and other highly toxic heavy metals, which had been used in pesticides and fungicides as the chief killing agent, and which contaminated the soil and which gets absorbed into the food. Commercially grown produce is generally grown on damaged and depleted soil that's even deficient in the natural microbes needed to help plants absorb vital nutrients. As though commercially grown food wasn't damaging people fast enough, most of the commercially grown food is now grown from GMO seeds, which is the worst of the worst, the most diabolical offense against mankind, God and Nature that has ever occurred in the history of the world. GMO plants are forcing nature to mutate and no one can predict the damage this will cause in the future. GMO foods, along with all the unnatural poisonous chemicals in the air, water and soil, and pharmaceutical drugs, have put the human race and all living things at risk. This is all in the name of greed, money and power. Some of the GMO food contains the most cancer-causing substance ever found in food. Eating commercially grown food, which is deficient in critical nutrients and contains toxic chemicals along with other unnatural food choices, such as processed foods, commonly causes the bowels and the whole body to become unnaturally acidic and toxic. These are the primary causes behind the accumulations of mucoid plaque and the advancement of diseases. As the bowels become toxic, the body's blood supply also becomes toxic. It is impossible to have clean blood and a clean liver when the bowels are toxic. Dirty intestinal tract is a major contributing factor in liver problems. This is because when blood travels from the intestines, carrying the necessary nutrients to feed all the body's cells, tissues and organs, it must pass through the liver, before it reaches anywhere else. Thus the liver becomes increasingly sluggish as it attempts to process relentless toxicity, day after day, year after year. A well-functioning digestive system and liver is the key to a long and vibrant life. There are more than 500 known functions of the liver, many of which are essential for life, and all of which are essential for good health and vitality. Long before the liver begins to weaken, the bowels are already excessively toxic and sluggish. Cleansing the bowel allows the liver to release built-up toxins. Until toxins are gone, no organ can cleanse and strengthen itself. Cleansing the intestines is the first and most important action to cleansing the liver and every other organ and all the way to the cells. Intestinal cleansing is the most important thing we can do for the liver. Trying to cleanse the liver with herbs or anything else without cleansing the intestines, is like trying to clean your clothes in the washing machine while using the same water you have been using for the last year. You just move the filth to another locality. The number one report we hear from people who used our Transformational Cleanse is that they have significantly more energy. It is also common to feel a profound increased sense of well-being, improved skin appearance and greater mental clarity, release from pains and other discomforts, are common testimonies. Constipation is greatly reduced or completely gone. Those who meditate tell us their meditation deepens. Many people feel a much deeper and closer feeling with the Divine. The testimonies reflect a broad spectrum of benefits and experiences, ranging from mild to profound. Over the last 29 years I have always been truly amazed at how many people find that during the deepest part of the cleanse, especially the Master Phase, many people recall past unresolved traumatic memories. Upon their next release of mucoid plaque, the trauma is completely released forever. What follows is usually the elimination of some form of a long-standing health issue. We theorize that unresolved memories become stuck in the proteins in our body, such as mucoid plaque, and when a piece of mucoid plaque releases from the intestinal wall, the unresolved emotions emerges. Once it leaves the body, the emotion vanishes and along with it a significant health issues also vanishes. This lead me study how emotions influence our health. What I found was very profound. Fortunately, cleansing is relatively easy. It's a perfect, health-enhancing solution for those who want to experience greater energy and better health. Thus, I recommend The Arise & Shine cleanse, the time proven deep cleansing program. Please stop supporting this horrifying pollution of our planet, our children and ourselves. Eat only Organically Grown or Biodynamic grown food. Join us at Arise & Shine and Toni Toney's Ecotarian Revolution and together we can help change our world and ourselves. Together, lets help create Heaven on Earth. For more information I recommend that you read my book Cleanse & Purify Thyself. Richard Anderson One estimate claim that 500 million people died during that pneumonia epidemic which was also called the Influenza epidemic. Natural-to-humans-microbes are the friendly bacteria given to us by drinking fresh, raw human mother's milk. There is no substitute for mother's milk. Pharmaceutical formulas, soy formulas and pasteurized cow milk are the worst of the worst baby milk substitute. Next to fresh mother's milk would be fresh raw goat milk an/or carrot juice. Lactobacillus bacteria have their place in helping people over come serious pathogenic infections, but they should not be allowed to become the dominant gut bacteria in humans. Lactobacillus bacteria are designed for animals, not humans. To my knowledge my self and one other doctor in Japan are the only two people who have created a probiotic formula that helps establish a predominance of natural-to-humans-microbes in our guts. To me, this is almost unbelievable because it is so obvious what we really need in our guts. Microbiome and Obesity - Martin Blaser, Departments of Medicine and Microbiology, New York University School of Medicine Department of Biology, NYU, New York Harbor VA Medical Center Poley, J. Rainier. "The Scanning Electron Microscope: How Valuable In The Evaluation of Small Bowel Mucosal Pathology In Chronic Childhood Diarrhea?" Journal of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, 1991; May-June; 7(3), pg. 386-394. How many times have you seen the belly of men, women too, look like they are ready to give birth to a horse? The protrusion of people's guts is a definite sign that their health has greatly deteriorated and is going down hill very quickly. These are the kind of guys who get colon cancer. Remember John Wayne's belly; remember how many tumors were found in his colon? He killed himself with his fork. GMO - generically modified organism In the last 10 years over 200 species of animals, birds, fish, and insects have become extinct, per day! A word about "Natural." Beware of all labels that state that the product is "natural." Consider the word Natural on food labels as a warning telling us that it is not organically grown. A product label might state, "made with 100% natural ingredients," or "made with 100% organic ingredients." The "100%" claim often refers to one or two ingredients, which are "100% natural," or "100% organic," even if other ingredients are synthetic! This is deceptive and dishonest advertising. Technically the product is "made with" some small amount of all natural or organic ingredients so the claim is true, even though misleading and may even contain highly toxic elements such as MSG and other unnatural ingredients. "Natural" food labels can mean just about anything; they have no nutritional meaning whatsoever and are ignored by the FDA.
Fetal growth assessment - decision support A script that shows you how to create a CRL calculator. Using Smith et al formula
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The Steve Frankel Group - Online Continuing Education Courses for Mental Health Professionals! The Steve Frankel Group provides online continuing education courses for mental health professionals, with online streaming video/audio, CD, and MP3 formats.
Student Coalition on Addiction We are a group of healthcare students from Boston University, Harvard University, Tufts University, and University of Massachusetts working to advocate for residents with and at risk for substance use disorders, including those disadvantaged by homelessness, poverty, racism, and other systemic forces. We envision a future in which Massachusetts residents with substance use disorders can live healthy…
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Planck Foundation  | |  integrating all branches of science into comprehensive analyses and models  | |  Monetary Sciences  | |  Economic Sciences  | |  Energy Sciences  | |  Physical Sciences  | |  Agricultural Sciences  | | Planck Foundation is founded and funded by Gijs Graafland in 1999. Planck Foundation advocates an Interdisciplinary Science Integration for achieving Global Sustainable Prosperity for all of mankind in the 21st century. Planck Foundation has a strong innovation focus (celebrating and exploring human intellect) and is by this rather anti-malthusian (malthusianism is just driven by fear, not by science, innovation and celebration of life, it ignores the continuous flow of technological progress as result of research in its deep dark predictions, making malthusianism quite reactionary and certainly unscientific). Planck Foundation channels loads of new data to scientists who are able to processing/analyse fast/huge loads of information (aka being able to steer their ships in/on this flood) while producing future models based on all this data. Planck Foundation delivers out of these by integration of sciences delivered perspectives 21st century proof (aka sustainable) governmental and corporate strategies and models. Just the way Max Planck invited Albert Einstein to Berlin and gave him his platform, Planck Foundation''s goal is delivering a platform to today''s brightest minds in areas that could deliver paradigmatic changes for the 21st century. Planck Foundation is founded and funded by Gijs Graafland in 1999. Planck Foundation currently operates the following research projects: Geothermal Energy, Virtual Building based Fusion Energy, Cold Electrolysis, Quantum Dots PV Energy, Deserttech (power, water and food out of deserts harvested by on site manufactured equipment), Energy focused/narrowed Quantitative Easing, Percolating Up Quantitative Easing, Energy focused/narrowed Securitization, Gold Leasing and Risks, Hydro Carbons in the Universe, Abiotic and Semibiotic Deep Hydro Carbons, Deep Hydro Carbon Geology, Wind Energy, Thick Oil Well Clean Warming Microwave Technology, Tar Sand Clean Warming Microwave Technology, Tar Sand to Power Clean Technology, Energy Politics, Energy Finance, Energy Transition, Energy Transition Finance Model, Geo Politics, Geo Strategy, Geo Economics, Geo Engineering and Risks, Global Tensions and Sparcs, Global Cooperation and Peace, Military Force and Democracy, Food Safety, Food Volume, Agricultural Profitability, Meat Replacers, Bio Physics in Agriculture, Bio Symbiosis in Agriculture, GMO, DNA Patenting, DNA Seed Banks, Urban Food Production, Irrigation, Physics Based Insect Removing Technology, Insect Protein Burger Paste, Water Purification, Physics Based Health Diagnosis, Physics Based Health Treatment, Bio Chemical Health Treatment, Spreading Wealth, Sustainable Prosperity, Creation or Distribution of Wealth, Distribution or Concentration of Power, Distribution or Concentration of Media, Hedging or Speculation, Low Priced Housing, On Supply instead of On Demand Power Technology, Revitalizing Local Economies, Localized Production Models, International Rail Technology, International Power Line Technology, National Power Grid, National Water Ways, Terror and Privacy, Freedom and Innovation, Freedom and Regulation, Derivatives and Systemic Risk, Too Big To Fail Too Big To Exist, Gold or kWh as Monetary Foundation, kWh as Fixed Value for Trade and Settlements, State Power and Corrupt Democracy, Press version Corruption, Politics and Science, Corporations and Science, Medical Data and Privacy, Monopolar or Multipolar World, Central or Decentral Government, Governmental Budgets, Governmental Funding, Urbanization or Suburbanization, Global Warming or Cooling, Earth Core Physics, Earth Mantle Physics, Sun Core Physics, Universe Physics, Cosmic Radiation, Cosmic Dust, Quantum Physics, Innovation Stimulation, Market Based Full Employment, Market Symbiosis Education, Open Technology Publishing, Open Science Data, Localization of Micro Credit, War and Peace, North South Cooperation, East West Cooperation, Bilateral Opportunities, Market/State Joint Mineral/Energy Exploring, Mineral/Energy Exploration Finance Models, Mineral/Energy Exploration Funding Models, Wallstreet/Ego Capitalism or Rhine/AlterEgo Capitalism, State Income and Taxation, Digitalizing of National Cultural Heritages, Media 2.0 Business Model, Digital Affiliating, Digital Advertising, Telco 3.0 Business Model, Telco Affiliating, Dynamic Advertising Technology and Virtual Screen Technology. If you want to be a part of the research of one of our topics: let us know. If you want organize a lecture at your university on one of our topics: let us know. If you want to make a media item on one of our topics: let us know. If you are a CEO and want us to address your board on one of our topics: let us know. If you hold a leading position within your Administration and want us to present on of our topics to your staff and/or their Departments: let us know. If you hold a leading position in a Central Bank and you want us to present one of our monetary topics to your board: let us know. If you''re an investor and want that your board fully understands one of our topics: let us know. If you want to realize actual economy out one of our topics: let us know. Planck Foundation is founded and funded by Gijs Graafland in 1999.
360-Degree Focus on Finance-IT-Risk Management Research Centers (tm), Financial Intelligence Research Reports on Everything You Need to Know from FinRM Global RISK Management Network, Financial Risk Management, Systemic Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, Operational Risk Management 360-Degree Focus on Finance-IT-Risk Management Research, Financial Intelligence Research Reports on Everything You Need to Know from FinRM Global RISK Management Network, Financial Risk Management, Systemic Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
Surgical Education – The most reliable and up to date resource for residents and surgeons Starting 1/26/2018, the content is available as iOS or Android app only. The desktop platform will no longer be updated. Please visit App Store  or Google Play to download app. Thank you.    
Uncommon Sense | Macroeconomic and financial market commentary We are all kinda long "awe" today -aren't we? Wait, better make it "shock and awe" for me. Yeah, even bulls are watching stupefied by now. I have no words to convey my feelings, or thoughts, for what we see in capital markets. A mind-blowing, once-in-a-lifetime experience I thought I would never endure -even after spending the best part of thirty years trading global markets. We are all also short of time, so let's get straight to the point. What on earth is propelling this "Everything bubble" blow-off top, and helping degrade the past bubbles to the child's play category? To follow up on my literary vein (see the previous post), I will paraphrase Ken Follet to try and synthesize the four main pillars of global financial insanity: 1.- The Fed/Central Bank Put and forward guidance. 2.- Debt, and sustained incremental debt growth. 3.- Fiat Money debasement by most CB's (cum laude in 2017). 4.- Financially repressive interest rates. So, we've got four pillars to explain insane behavior by investors. But it gets worse: I do not think we need all four pillars to keep this going. They are formidable pillars, and the excellent architectural design allows for some weakness in some of them at times (provided the rest remain powerful enough). The latest rate rises in the US are a case in point. Markets couldn't care less. We just need two or three of the pillars to work simultaneously -and the induced "nirvana" could go on for long enough to surpass the effects of the time-worn widow maker trade in JGB's. Central Banks have managed to blend absurdity with eternity. We have a planetary, fault tolerant, monetary boom! I will admit to being unable to distribute uneven weightings between them four. Every single one of them implies a policy that is anathema to me, and thus I am incapable of underlining the particular incongruity of any of them. It is evident that Keynes was right when he stated that irrationality could outlast solvency. Some inconsistencies have gone on for decades now: think Japanese sovereign debt ratios to GDP, JGB yields and, of late, a stupendous money base increase up to 90% of GDP (no, no "typo" there, and no kidding either). Add European junk debt prices to the list more recently. Examples abound. Of course, for our well-being and our future as a species, this global economic strategy is just brainless -and grossly negligent. At some point, we will all pay a hefty price for it: the longer it goes on, the higher the price tag. Regrettably, by then it probably won't matter to a bunch of my macro colleagues or me. As I write, I am still nearly entirely stand-by regarding risk-on risk-off positioning, but this situation is unsustainable. For some of us, fear of missing out (FOMO) was never a sentiment to take care of, and, sure enough, I've not only missed out but lost significant money in these last ten months. The latest chain of monthly drains, even with low commitment in my positioning, is small but psychologically unbearable. Keynes did get a couple of things right: failing "unconventionally" is tough on anybody's emotional equilibrium. 1.- The original Greenspan put -and iterations. This term was coined in the late nineties to describe the Fed's reaction to LTCM's demise. In fact, by then it was also factoring in the previous response to the 1987 stock market crash. It was the second time in a row that the Fed bailed the market out. A lot more of the kind was to come later, but we did not know then. Moral hazard is another way to describe what happened -and you can read tons of literature on the subject. The term has evolved and consolidated. Forcefull CB reaction to the tech bubble burst and, seven years later, to the sub-prime excesses, solidified the strategy providing risk-taking investors with a "de facto" riskless trip. Bernanke certainly helped make sure this "fully insured" feeling remained steadfast in the investor's mentality. Then year 2k happened -but the damage was relatively contained to some areas of the markets. 2008 was a different story, a global bust. It took a long time to get investor confidence back after CB's miserably failed to honor that put in 2008/2009. Trust is essential in finance -and you know the saying: once bitten twice shy. But finally, they did it. A couple of forces played a role: Over time, TINA helped investors allow themselves to trust CB's again. You want to "buy" that something will work when you have no alternative to keep your job or need to attain your financial targets (particularly if you need the money). ETF's did their part as well. After all, if you buy the index basket you are buying "the system". You are suppressing the manager/human error risk. If there is no financial system there is no life (or so we think), so we might just as well play along and accept whatever the future may bring for all. Lastly, the powerful CB volatility short (Powell, 2012 Fed minutes reproduced later) rubber-stamped the deal. Risk had been swapped for uncertainty. Uncertainty for the human race was the only consideration weighing against risky investments. Major Investment risk had all but disappeared (selling puts made a lot of sense). The only risk left is systemic uncertainty (I exclude the term risk because risk can be handled mathematically, while uncertainty can not: it is like flipping a coin just once). Regrettably, unlike Rosalind did ("As you like it", William Shakespeare), CB's did not rhetorically question themselves if their desire to remove risk and volatility was "too much of a good thing". Investors don't know, but I am 100% sure they are now terrified (read Dudley's latest speech) at the sight of the current "Frankeinsmarket". A market that eases financial conditions with every "dovish hike". I remember bashing dovish hikes a year ago as an absurd concept tailored to then CB's needs. It is now coming back to haunt them. Once magnificent "Paint drying" descriptions to depict the consequences of QT look as if they will follow the same fate. So what follows? We shall take our evidence as it comes because I'm fed up with trying to anticipate FOMC behavior: you cannot front-run paranoic decisions. But let me suggest that this quote hints at some understanding of the problem by top gun "Jay". I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause. Investors really do understand now that we will be there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy. Jerome Powell. Excerpt from the official transcript of the Fed meeting in October 2012 And it does look as if he is aware of what is at stake: When it is time for us (The Fed) to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it's not so much the sale, the duration; it's also unloading our short volatility position. But don't ask me what they are going to do about it. My bet? Nothing substantial, but they are scared by now. I would unwind the volatility short and try to shake the market up. We need ups and downs, extensions and retracements, more extensive intraday ranges and some squeezing of vol shorts now and then. And, no doubts, I would scrap forward guidance and dot plots. We have to go back to those times when if you thought you understood what Greenspan was saying "you were probably wrong". I liked that situation (wow, how I miss those real markets when thinking made a difference). All the same, I think we will need more than that to stop the massive stampede. Not infrequently, success has a bittersweet flavor to it. CBs now have to handle the investor charge for "risk" that they provoked. 2.- Debt and sustained and incremental debt growth.- One chart is worth a thousand words. We are still notoriously indebting ourselves into growth. And we do it "in crescendo" (positive second derivative, with the tangent line below the function graph). We grow because we add to the debt pile and not only do we further indebt, we do not save near enough (the US is nearly savings-less). To add insult to injury, we then use fractional reserve banking and monetary debasement to fund that debt. During the first nine months of 2017, the world added 16 trillion of new debt taking the total to 233 trillion (IIF chart via Business Insider). As a reference, let's remember that world GDP is 78 trillion. The good news is that we are not increasing the debt to GDP thanks to healthy nominal global GDP growth. The bad news is that debt grows 2.5 times as much as nominal GDP. And, not to forget, it is not infrastructure-related or supply-side investment-related debt: we still anticipate future consumption effectively subsidizing aggregate demand. Not only do we subsidize aggregate demand, blurring and softening the line of consequences of inequality, we also use debt to lever up the capital base of our supply side. You hear lots of stories about enterprise leverage above six times EBITDA. I heard of a new one last week. It will be Ok while the going is good. But, if at some point the consumer is forced to delever, we have also compromised the financial health of our NFC's for our next recession. Never mind the inherently unstable banks (tier one ratios of 10 or even 12 are way too low, and fractional reserve banking should be outlawed). They are better off than in the past bubble -but the magnitude of the potential disruption is 2008 many times over. In a depression, they are financially dead. Nobody cares because we assume that the CBs will prevent the next recession forever. For as long as debt thrives, and nobody questions its validity (people accept it will be paid) the show will go on. Debt growth helps generate liquidity, stimulates economic growth, alleviates the consequences of inequality and keeps families afloat. It helps markets and the wealth effect as well increasing demand for common stock and favoring healthy corporate buy-back demand. Great, but, for God's sake, somebody ought to take a look at the long-term consequences! 3.- Monetary debasement of Fiat currencies.- Albert Edwards produced this last chart in his latest London presentation -the Woodstock for bears annual event. I went last year. It shows the amount of printing that has taken place since 2007. And it puts the 2017 hallelujah in context. We are getting better at printing: we nearly beat 2008 figures! Keynesians will say: what's not to like about inflating CB balance sheets if there is no goods and services inflation? Well, not to forget, all reserves generated are high powered money and subject to second round growth using the fractional reserve banking system. That has not been particularly harmful up to now, what has been detrimental is that those funds, unable to creep into the ordinary business cycle, have found their way into financial products. And because positive real interest rates are for most currencies an obsolete concept, they have found their way into risk assets. An enormous percentage of them has been incremental demand for stocks and risky investments. That's not all. Some CBs have gone into overdrive: no need to use the banking system or induce investments by third parties. The SNB and the BOJ directly buy stock against their money base in the secondary market. It's mostly Apple stock and other FAANGS for the SNB -and more subtle and more spread out ETF buying for the BOJ. But the money created out of nothing ends pressuring prices up. On top of that, even if it is not strictly speaking freshly minted money, the almighty Jap public pension fund is switching to equities, and the Norwegian sovereign fund as well. And they are resorting to leverage! Pension funds are also "risking up" to attain impossible return targets. The public sector is a now a prominent bubble blower (and are even bragging about it). What happens if this stops? Nothing, provided the other pillars are still in place. This is a very robust building we are looking at. The rest of the pillars are stable enough. The mother of all bubbles it is. 4.- Financially repressive interest rates.- Bill Gross introduced the concept of financial repression in modern economic literature. I think it can be defined as the use of monetary power by CBs to deprive savers of their legitimate income. What income is legitimate? I think a decent starting point is nominal GDP growth. Or at the very least short-term rates higher than the GDP deflator. Financial repression is key to the bubble. It indecently shoves everybody into risky assets. I am strongly against it (always have been save for exceptional moments when you have to try to keep the market functioning). It is never a good idea to be unfair to a portion of the economic players. They will take their punishment on the chin, but they will not help the economy prosper. Resentment is a nasty feeling with very long "duration". Savers used to be a source of sustainable aggregate demand. And it was a low beta aggregate demand (with low sensitivity to the point of the cycle). We should be careful with aggregate demand preservation. Low rates favor debt growth. We have to stop that asap. Infinite debt is not a nirvana! Low rates favor playing games with the WACC and allow NFC's gearing up. Low rates encourage risky behavior by individuals -when investing and when consuming as well. Interest rates are at their most repressive point since 2007. They've been lower before (in some places) but not against current nominal GDP growth. The Bund is the paradigmatic example. Eurozone nominal GDP growth is roughly 3.5%. Inflation is 1.4%. Growth is 2.1%. Real rates are negative 200 bps (in the shortest end of the curve) and even negative 90 bps for the ten-year Bund. I can't help scratching my head daily. I still don't "get" the rationale behind this policy. Trying to remain sane in an insane environment.- This interesting time in which we are continually debating the burlesque insanity of the ineffable Trump is better than any other to introspectively question oneself thoroughly. Or, why not just blame others? Ought we be concerned instead about the sanity of the rest of the market players and their FOMO syndrome? But, if I opt not to blame anybody else, does that mean I am a genetically engineered subspecies of the permabear? It is in those moments of despair that I find some solace in my reading. And, voilà, here comes no other than Powell, the new supreme God of the Keynesian mount Olympus, quoted above, voicing the same concern. Maybe, only maybe, it is justified that I find minor pricing discrepancies between sectors, asset classes, or individual stocks, so unmotivating. It is uncertainty that's killing me. The elephant in the room is the herd's en masse response to the Central Bank's call for financial risk exposure as the ultimate cure for our economic ails. The Greek 10y bond price is a great example (chart zerohedge). The Argentine 100-year bond is a close second. Labelling my disorder as obsessive-compulsive might be understating things. I toil day and night trying to find some alternative investments with even a pyrrhic return for a euro-based fund (something in the very low positive numbers after fund expenses). I see none. In this last "everything bubble" there is no place to hide. You could avoid Japanese stocks and real estate in 1989, or the 1987 October equity crash (with adequate diversification, interest rate income was good and improving seriously). I did. You could stand aside from the NASDAQ bubble easily. There was no scarcity of alternative playing fields to try and make money. It was harder to bypass the (2000-2008) real estate bubble and its deadly effect on financial markets. I played the run-up in Gold from the lows, the odd trade coming up, and a balanced portfolio to come out more or less satisfactorily (in the black). Then the last quarter of 2008 happened. 2009 looked like a planetary collapse saved "just in time" by the suppression of the "mark to market" rule for bank portfolios -together with a well-justified initial generous dose of QE. But then, and in the years that followed, there were abundant places to make money. The currency arena up to the Shanghai accord was fine. And the rally in bonds was great. In all those instances there was no lack of investment opportunities compatible with a portfolio with low systemic risk. Or, in Hunt's vocabulary, an asset management style with lots of risky trades but low uncertainty was feasible. Correlation coefficients between trades were still manageable. You could be a bubble skeptic and still make money. Not anymore. Today you are faced with an uncertain decision that cannot be supplanted and bypassed by a series of risky decisions with moderate correlation. You are "in" with the CBs, or you are "out". Of course, you can split your portfolio in two, but you cannot proceed with an integrated portfolio approach that uses a series of risky decisions to make money while avoiding systemic risk. An excellent, if somewhat long, post by Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory. "The three-body problem") explains this. A risky decision is when you have a pretty good sense of the odds and the pay-offs. It lends itself to statistical analysis and econometrics, particularly if it's a decision you will have the opportunity to make multiple times. An uncertain decision is when you don't have a good sense of odds and pay-offs. Here, statistical analysis may very well kill you, particularly if you're not going to get many cracks at the game, or if you don't know how many times you'll get to make a choice. You need game theory to make sense of decisions made under uncertainty. (...) Basis uncertainty is the core problem facing every investor today... There is a non-trivial chance that structural changes in our social worlds of politics and markets have made it impossible to identify predictive/derivative patterns. (...) To make things worse, the colossal CB balance sheets and the infinite elasticity of their size adds a second layer of uncertainty over uncertainty. Ben Hunt again. Henri Poincaré proved that the motion of the three objects, with the exception of a few special starting cases, is non-repeating. This is a chaotic system, meaning that the historical pattern of object positions has ZERO predictive power in figuring out where these objects will be in the future. (...) What we have to accept is that there is an Object 3 that has moved into a position such that its gravity absolutely swamps the impact of Objects 1 and 2. This Object 3, of course, is extraordinary monetary policy, specifically the purchase of $20 TRILLION worth of financial assets by the Big 4 central banks — the Fed, the ECB, the BOJ, and the PBOC. (...) I tried to be a hero and short some obscene valuations. I got crushed. I now stand aside and wait because, we can be heroes, but likely, just for one day. Lovable as they are, heroes never last long. It pays to wait. The four-pillared bubble building boasts robust construction and fault-tolerant functioning. Nevertheless, be sure that all bubbles burst -it just might take a long wait this time around unless something unexpectedly moves in the CB (object 3) space.
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